Technology Surges

a

• Industrial Revolution - 1770 - 1829
• Steam & Railways - 1829 - 1873
• Steel, Electricity - 1875 - 1918
• Oil, Cars, Mass Production - 1908 - 1974
• IT & Telecoms - 1974 - ?

b

Installation:

• Early adopters
• Technology being developed
• Easy to get into market Turning Point:
• Time for regulation
• Weak companies eliminated Deployment:
• Widely used
• Market saturated
• Technology matured

c

Deployment

Disruptive Technology

a

Kodak fell victim to disruptive technology %%🖋 Edit in Excalidraw%%

b

%%🖋 Edit in Excalidraw%%

c

Arguably they’re already at the start of a technology disruption. There are already companies making extensive use of LLMs and finding they can produce excessive value for investors by doing so. Whether they’re a threat to Big Tech is a complicated question, most LLMs are developed by Big Tech companies, due the large costs associated with training models. However, most success stories from the use of LLMs seem to come from smaller companies that are able to pivot rapidly and change their operating procedures to benefit from this new technology naturally, while large companies struggle to integrate the technology and often have to force its use into procedures that weren’t designed for it.

d

No.

The Long Tail

a

Physical stores can only offer so many products for sale - the most popular. Digital stores can sell effectively infinite, allowing them to massively increase their sales by selling a large quantity of niche products.

b The Long Tail Theory, Debunked

• Large libraries are hard to search, so people gravitate towards what they know
• Recommendation algorithms are often unsophisticated and more likely to recommend hits

c

Recommendation systems have a heavy effect on the impact of the long tail, as the ability of your recommendation system to expose niche products directly impacts your ability to sell them, and hence take advantage of the long tail.

Q: What is a counter-point to the long tail? A: Large libraries are hard to search, so people tend to gravitate towards what they already know. Additionally, recommendation algorithms are often unsophisticated and more likely to recommend hits.

Q: What are the three phases of a disruptive technology? A: Installation - Where early adopters get in, and the tech is still being developed, easy to get into the market. Turning Point - Time for regulation, weak companies are eliminated Deployment - Tech is mature, marked is hard to get into